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“Un”Resilience

Drawing Insights from Societal Collapse

Understanding the mechanisms behind societal collapse and resilience is more critical than ever in a society marked by natural disasters, conflicts, and social upheavals. Our research aims to develop a comprehensive theory of societal collapse by identifying key indicators and thresholds that signal when a society is no longer resilient. By analyzing various data sources and leveraging interdisciplinary methods, we seek to answer:

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How can we systematically identify and assess societal collapse, and how is it intertwined with social resilience?

Collapse to Understand Resilience 

Why Focus on Collapse?

Traditional resilience research often feels repetitive, offering limited new insights. To break this cycle, our proposal shifts the focus from resilience to societal collapse. By studying how and why societies fail, we can uncover the limits of resilience and identify critical vulnerabilities.

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Collapse and Resilience: Two Sides of the Same Coin

  • Resilience is about a system's ability to withstand shocks.

  • Collapse occurs when resilience fails.

By examining collapse, we gain a clearer picture of the tipping points where systems can no longer cope, providing valuable insights into strengthening resilience.

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Advantages of This Approach

  • Identifying Failure Points: Understand where and why systems break down.

  • Addressing Complexity: Recognize that multiple interconnected factors often lead to collapse.

  • Breaking the Echo Chamber: Introduce fresh perspectives to a saturated field.​

Methodology

We employ a mixed-methods approach across three interconnected work packages (WPs), integrating both qualitative and quantitative techniques:

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Case Studies and Perspectives

Migration Perspective

Context: Colombia, Greece, South Africa, Rwanda
Insights:

  • Migration crises are often framed as emergencies or deviations from normalcy.

  • Such framing influences political responses and public perceptions, potentially exacerbating societal tensions.

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Political Behavior Perspective

Context: Eastern Europe (e.g., Russia, Ukraine, Georgia)
Insights:

  • Crises are socially constructed and can be perceived differently by various groups.

  • Political events like invasions or policy changes can disrupt ontological security, leading to societal instability.

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Natural Hazards Perspective

Context: United States
Insights:

  • Collapse is a process marked by increasing challenges to social order.

  • Natural disasters can serve as catalysts that expose underlying vulnerabilities in societal structures.

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Systems of Systems Perspective

Context: Latin America (Colombia, Mexico, Ecuador)
Insights:

  • Interconnected factors such as contested governance, migration flows, and criminal activities create complex dynamics.

  • These complexities can strain institutional capacities and erode public trust.

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Cultural Differences Perspective

Context: China
Insights:

  • Historical fears of chaos and loss of territory shape responses to perceived threats.

  • Environmental concerns and geopolitical tensions influence societal stability.

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