Every model has a story, every story has a model
GLOBAL AND SOCIAL CHALLENGES
We seek to understand some of the complex issues that impact our world. Specifically, we examine the effects that large and fast migration flows have in cities' and countries' society, governance, and infrastructure; how informal settlements can be absorptive spaces for marginalized communities; and how news media play a role in our attitudes towards humanitarian crises, among other topics.
Research Areas' Focus
1
Social Resilience and Human Mobility
Explores how cities adapt to shocks while providing support for marginalized communities.
-
Studies the role of human mobility in providing housing and livelihoods to migrants.
-
Examines urban infrastructure capacity under environmental, economic, and social stress.
2
Understanding Forced Displacement
Explores how population displacement challenges receiving communities' social, economic, and institutional capacities.
-
Studies drivers of displacement such as conflict, climate change, governance failures, and economic instability.
-
Examines host community adaptation, resource allocation, and policy responses to support displaced populations while managing social tensions.
3
Media and Public Perception
Studies how media shape public understanding and response to crises.
-
Examines framing, narratives, and emotional impact in media coverage.
-
Analyzes the role of information flow in humanitarian aid and policy decisions.
Selected Publications
Mapping cooperation: insights into Colombia's humanitarian response to migration from Venezuela
​​Authors: Liss Dayana Romero, Jose J Padilla, Katherine Palacio, & Erika Frydenlund​
Tags: Social Resilience
This study investigates organizational cooperation in Colombia’s humanitarian response to the arrival of 2.9 million displaced Venezuelans, using interviews and web scraping to map key actors and coordination networks. Social Network Analysis revealed that coordination largely occurred through established INGOs, diaspora-led volunteer organizations, and ad-hoc mechanisms; while coordination mechanisms enabled resource allocation and diverse responses, sector-specific organizations often operated in silos with limited cross-sector collaboration.
Adapting and Validating a Survey to Assess Host Communities Support for Migration
​Authors: Jhon G Botello, Katherine Palacio, Erika Frydenlund,
Humberto Llinás, & Jose J Padilla
Tags: Human mobility, Public perception
The paper develops and validates the Support for Migration Assessment (SMA) survey, based on Social Exchange Theory, to measure how receiving communities perceive and respond to rapid migration influxes by assessing trust, satisfaction, and infrastructure strain. Survey data from 333 participants in Barranquilla, Colombia showed strong internal consistency and construct validity across trust in institutions, community satisfaction, infrastructure impact, and support for migration, confirming the SMA's reliability for evaluating host community responses.
Xenophobic Events vs. Refugee Population--Using GDELT to Identify Countries with Disproportionate Coverage
​​Authors: Himarsha R Jayanetti, Erika Frydenlund, Michele C Weigle
Tags: Social Resilience, Forced Displacement, Media
The paper uses the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) to analyze xenophobic events reported in global media during 2022, focusing on their frequency relative to refugee populations in host countries. Analysis of 2,778 events revealed that higher refugee populations do not directly correlate with increased xenophobic incidents; instead, political factors may play a stronger role, with nearly 90% of events categorized as indirect according to CAMEO event coding.
Authors: Erika Frydenlund, Peter Foytik, Jose J Padilla, Alain Ouattara
Tags: Social Resilience
The paper presents a prototype agent-based model that simulates the formation of spontaneous settlements among internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, incorporating geographic and social constraints that influence settlement decisions.​ The model helps humanitarian stakeholders anticipate where self-settlements may emerge, improving the ability to locate displaced populations and deliver timely assistance to prevent further harm and loss of life.
Authors: Brian Llinas, Guljannat Huseynli, Erika Frydenlund, Katherine Palacio,
Humberto Llinas, Jose J Padilla
Tags: Media & Public Perception, Human Mobility
The study applies statistical path modeling to investigate how increasing Venezuelan migration to Colombia influences regional media coverage, particularly focusing on expressions of frustration related to migration, infrastructure, government, and geopolitics. Findings show that rising migrant numbers increase negative media coverage of infrastructure strain (hospitals, schools), contributing to anti-migrant sentiment; simultaneously, frustration shifts from geopolitics to domestic government response, reflecting changing public focus from migration causes to the adequacy of humanitarian support.
​Authors: Lydia Cleveland Sa, & Erika Frydenlund
​Tags: Social Resilience, Understanding Displacement
The paper examines how existing vulnerability indexes—developed by private, federal, and state agencies—differ in defining and measuring vulnerability, assessing their suitability for guiding public health interventions during crises like COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Analysis of Virginia’s vulnerability indexes revealed significant inconsistencies across methodologies and identified areas, underscoring the limitations of relying on pre-existing indexes for pandemic response and highlighting the need for more context-specific, dynamic data to inform public health decision-making.
Authors: Veysel Yesilbas, Jose J Padilla, & Erika Frydenlund
Tags: Media & Public Perception, Human Mobility.
The paper analyzes global media coverage of refugees using GDELT data, aiming to assess the volume, tone, and key themes across international news outlets and languages during major refugee-related events. Coverage consistently carries a negative tone that reflects both empathy and anti-migrant sentiment; events like World Refugee Day trigger spikes in coverage, while international reporting remains focused more on diplomatic dialogue and appeals for aid rather than concrete action.
A Bayesian Approach of Predicting the Movement of Internally Displaced Persons
​Authors: Obed Domson, Jose J Padilla, Guohui Song, Erika Frydenlund
Tags: Social Resilience, Forced Displacement
The paper develops an approximate Bayesian model to predict the arrival patterns of internally displaced people, using geographic factors—elevation, distance, and land cover—to characterize potential destinations.​ Applied to North Kivu, DRC, the model finds that distance is the strongest factor influencing destination choice (67%), followed by land cover (24%) and elevation (9%), offering a quantitative framework for anticipating IDP movement patterns.